If you folks are civilized when you are behind the steering wheel, then maybe you are a great deal more evolved than I. When I am driving down a road, and come across a bunch of pedestrians trying to cross the road, I don't slow down unless the signal is red. I flash my headlights menacingly, honk my horn and speed up. Translated into words, this action means, "Watch out! I'm bigger and clad in a metal armour! So step out of my way... or else!"
When a pedestrian stands in front of my accelerating vehicle, this isn't a friendly warning but a direct threat of physical harm. From where he stands, my car isn't a vehicle of transportation; for him, it is a weapon of death, like a loaded cannon ready to fire.
No, we don't look at this as a social injustice because we are all so USED TO IT, dammit! Just as, in the days of feudalistic zamindari and untouchability, neither the overlords nor the downtrodden felt that they were part of an unjust system! They felt it was the only correct way for a society to function!
Just this morning, I flashed my headlights and prevented a bunch of schoolgirls from crossing the highway in front of my car. My thinking was: Let them cross behind me if they can because I'm in a tearing hurry.
All citizens are not equal
You remember that famous quote from George Orwell's novella, Animal Farm, where the pigs declare, "All animals are equal, but some of us are more equal than others"?
Like the pigs, we motorists -- especially those of us in cars -- are 'more equal' than others. We have special rights. We have a special right-of-way that the bitch-goddess of economic superiority has bestowed upon us.
Our comfort and speed takes precedence over the comfort and safety of pedestrians, because we are capable of buying expensive vehicles, fuel and vehicle insurance, and paying road tax.
It is no secret that wheels are a status symbol, a social pecking-order based on wealth. In ascending order -- bicycle, scooter, motorbike, small car (Maruti 800), larger car (Fiat Palio, Maruti Esteem), larger foreign car (Honda Civic), SUVs. A Toyota Land Cruiser or Mitsubishi Pajero sits near the top of the heap.
I'm ok with status-symbols; it's a natural human tendency. But...
Have you noticed that the word 'pedestrian' is tainted with contempt? Also it's hindi equivalent, Raaste pe chalta aadmi ?
When did the basic human-being become an object of contempt? We aren't born with wheels, you know! We are all basically pedestrians, but why is it so easy to forget this when we are behind a steering wheel?
Visualize the sheer inequity of this situation: I am one guy securely seat-belted in a well-cushioned airconditioned bubble of metal and glass, and capable of travelling at 90 km per hour. As always, I am in a tearing hurry to go somewhere. Therefore, my right-or-way takes precedence over that of six kids carrying a load of books in the noontime sun, balancing precariously near a road divider amidst a confusion of speeding vehicles, noise and smoke, looking for a chance to safely cross the highway and get to school before the starting bell.
Some questions
What gave me the right-or-way over these kids? What gave me the right to assign my time and comfort greater priority than their time, comfort and above all, SAFETY?
Was it the fact that I could do them physical harm --a sense of raw power -- that gave me the right-of-way? Must the weak yield to the strong in our society?
Was it my vehicle's greater size and bulk -- a ton of sleek metal and glass hurtling down the road like a charging rhino? Must humans yield to machines in our society?
Was it my greater speed and momentum -- the fact that I was going much faster, and would have to sacrifice my speed in order to let them pass? Must human 'inefficiency' yield to mechanical 'efficiency' in our society?
Was it the fact that I was obviously a person with more visible money-power, and therefore my time and comfort was more important than theirs? Must mere humans bow before money-power in our society?
Was it the fact that the road was a motorists' territory -- and therefore a pedestrian must somehow cope and sneak past as best as he can, at his own risk? Must we all gradually give up our rights as 'mere humans' and pedestrians in our own neighbourhoods, as roads become increasingly more common, wider and busier?
To my children, an apology
My children cannot safely walk to school. They cannot ride a bicycle to school. I would not even advise them to walk to and from the nearest suburban railway station, although it is at an easy walking distance which I myself often walk.
They cannot do all these things because the rights of people-on-wheels are rampaging the basic rights of people-on-foot.
Unless my children become people-on-wheels, they are underprivileged citizens in my city. They are not equal citizens. Their basic right to walk is not respected by my government or even by motorists like myself.
For robbing my children of their birthright to walk any distance in safety, I hang my head in shame.
And with tears of anger and regret, I swear to restore to my children their birthright. So Help me God!
Showing posts with label Radical Action. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Radical Action. Show all posts
Saturday, December 29, 2007
A Worst-case Scenario for India and Some Thoughts on How to Reduce its Impact
While participating in a debate on growthmadness.org, I was struck by the fact that many among us are actually hoping to find a way out of our current predicament WITHOUT CHAOS and major social-economic-political disruptions... or what pokerfaced economists call Discontinuities.
I think that's unlikely. We are jolly well going to have some 'discontinuities' on this planet, regardless of whether we act positively or just drift happily along seeking economic growth.
The likelihood of populations coming crashing in a series of major calamities is high and getting higher. And please note: this is irrespective of any Global Warming events like ocean levels rising, more powerful hurricanes etc. etc.
Because our economies are growing in a pretty centralized way that is POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE. The globalized economy is like a tower built by kids balancing blocks and books one on top of another; at some point, it all becomes shaky.
Our own civilization is built around central infrastructures that invisibly enable massive human populations (and their massive consumptions) to be maintained, especially in urban areas: power-supply, water-supply, residential and office buildings, highways, railways, food-supply, industries, banking system, stock markets... The degree of reliance on these infrastructures grows exponentially year from year, especially in a place like Mumbai, India, where I live.
For instance, all around me, I see high-rise apartments built to accommodate the burgeoning consumer-class. A lot of these folks are making their money thanks to outsourcing from the US. Without lifts and piped water-supply, high-rises would become uninhabitable.
Now let me project a worst-case scenario for Indian metropolises that could very easily turn into reality.
[Responding to the early comments, let me add a caveat here: Remember, what I've projected here is a WORST-case scenario, not a BAD-case scenario. Reality, as it plays out, doesn't usually follow the worst-case scenario projections... it stops at being merely bad. Usually, NOT ALL THE DOMINOS FALL DOWN... a few remain half-fallen, preventing the rest from toppling.]
THE SCENARIO
The projected US recession in 2008 is deeper than expected. A huge ball of bad debts concealed in the US banking system starts to unravel, causing a tightening of debts and an economic slowdown. In a desperate attempt to create more jobs in the US Economy, the Congress passes laws that ban outsourcing to India.
And this move is emulated by EU Nations who aren't doing too well either.
As the outsourced work dries up, BPOs downsize their workforce and many shut down after struggling along for some months. Millions of apartment-dwellers in Mumbai are rendered jobless. These are currently big spenders running up credit-card debts and supporting the Indian economy with their extravagant purchases.
As these millions of unemployed folks struggle to subsist in the changed scenario, they set off a domino effect that plays out over a two-year period:
Domino 1: They default on credit-card repayments, car loans, housing loans and stop paying their electricity bills. The banking sector takes a hit at first as bad debts mount, and then begins a spate of repossessed houses and cars. Power supply companies, which are now in the private sector, cut off their supply, rendering their apartments unlivable.
Domino 2: As these guys flood the job market, salaries in other sectors of the economy drop precipitously, making more people unable to support their existing bank loans that were taken under the belief that the economy was rock-solid. More repossessions, real estate prices drop, consumer goods companies (durables as well as fast-moving stuff like biscuits and ketchups) start suffering losses. Sales of new automobile drop off as secondhand cars flood the market at distress prices. Mobile phone usage starts dropping off as unpaid bills mount.
Domino 3: Stock markets start tripping and falling, multi-billionaires with their fortunes riding on these high-return instruments realize that these are high-risk too. They start pulling out, close on the heels of foreign investors (including US Provident Funds), and the markets collapse in ruins on the heads of millions of middle-class investors spread all over the country -- in cities big and small.
Domino 4: A number of banks collapse due to large amounts of unrecoverable debts. Very large numbers of middleclass and poor depositors are hit, reduced to rags. The assumptions on which banking rates of returns are calculated are all up in the air. Confidence in banking vanishes. Confidence in markets turns bitter. Confidence in government and administration crumbles. The Finance Minister stops trying to reassure the public and maintains a descreet silence.
Domino 5: Hitherto rich people living and working in high-rises turn paupers, and power-supply to many buildings is cut off and electricity bills go unpaid. No lifts, no water-supply... a large part of the city of Mumbai ceases to be inhabitable. These apartments have no market value, and so they are deserted by their owners. The real estate market crumbles.
Domino 6: Law & Order problems abound -- theft, robberies, murders, suicides, forgery, defaults on debts. Movement of essential goods along road and rail corridors becomes a high-risk business. A state of emergency is declared and the world's largest democracy becomes a police-state.
Domino 7: As medical and surgical supplies drop off and health issues are aggraved by stress, water-shortages, poor hygiene etc, mortality rates surge. Air quality deteriorates as wooden doors, windows and furniture is burnt as cooking fuel. The medical infrastructure becomes overloaded and then collapses. Hospitals become places where sick people go to die rather than to recover.
Domino 8: As death rates spiral upwards, safe disposal of the dead becomes a major economic and administrative issue. Rotting bodies lie uncremated, unburied in deserted high-rise apartments. Friendly neighbourhood stray dogs respond to the abundance of sheltering darkness and human flesh by turning feral, hunting in packs. They revert to being like the wolves and wild dogs that they have descended from. Children and the infirm are now no longer safe.
Domino 9: Deprived of food supplies, city folks -- those who are fit and capable of manual work -- migrate towards rural areas and start invading rural populations. Pitched battles for territory ensue. Communal and caste feuds, never really forgotten, rear their ugly heads. Bloodbaths follow.
Domino 10: National boundaries are now difficult to defend as the overloaded administration crumbles. Many in the administration and in security forces have not received salaries for months; they have few loyalties left. State and Central government offices, municipal offices, panchayat offices, army barracks... all lie deserted. There is no government; it is every man for himself.
In December 2009, a free-for-all state of anarchy prevails over a once-proud economy that boasted of 9.5% GDP growth.
India Shining, R.I.P.
THE END
Variations of this scenario would apply to many nations in the world that are on the economic fast-track. In such instances, how long would it take for national populations to crash to, say, one-sixth of their current strengths? A decade? Or even less maybe?
Hate to say this, but I think each passing year of economic growth increases the odds of a catastrophe of such magnitude. The tower of blocks will definitely fall within the next couple of decades.
The challenge before us is really to anticipate it, awaken the administration to such risks and build safety-valves into the system while bringing down the size of this tower of insecurities.
And this, let me stress, holds true irrespective of whether climate change is happening or not. Even in a world devoid of global warming, the current paradigm of economic growth is a dead-end street.
So let us stop debating about global warming, alternative sources of energy etc. and start bearing down on the brakes of the economy, folks. Slow down economic growth, let the foam and fizz of bullish expectations settle down to a realistic level...
And then let us, with due urgency, try to enter into a phase of consolidating the economy -- redistributing the gains of growth in more socially and ecologically equitable ways. This will help us avoid the brunt of 'discontinuities' when they occur.
A few ideas on how to slow down economic growth
1) Individual consumers need to consciously consume less of whatever it is that they consume. The government or NGOs should incentivate families to benchmark their current levels of consumption on various fronts, then reduce them.
2) Advertising aimed at making people buy more should be tapered off. Only adverts giving information should be allowed.
3) Roadside advertising hoardings should be reduced by 50%, and they should not be illuminated, as they use up precious energy for a relatively non-productive purpose.
4) Stop adding power generation capacities, whether thermal or otherwise. Freeze them at existing capacities and merely replace thermal capacities with wind-energy and solar generation capacities.
5) Stop registering new private vehicles. NGOs or government should incentivate people to give up private transport (for instance by giving them free passes on public transport with 10-year validity.)
6) Each year, taper off the numbers of private transport wheels by 10% or more, and enhance the capacity of public transport by 20%. This will result in a net improvement in the quality of transportation and reduced congestion each year.
7) Enforce a one-child policy with both carrot and stick. This means that within the span of 60-70 years, population would go down by about 50%.
8) Build infrastructure for localised means of recreation such as playgrounds and stadiums, both indoor and outdoor. Encourage greater participation in physical and mental sporting activities by organizing competitions etc.
8) Civic and governmental efforts to improve quality of life are crucial to wean off people from the rat-race.
PS: This is not saying that we shall have no more problems, and shall live happily ever after. Every situation inevitably has its own set of problems... and we shall have to be alert and aware to deal with them as they arise.
I think that's unlikely. We are jolly well going to have some 'discontinuities' on this planet, regardless of whether we act positively or just drift happily along seeking economic growth.
The likelihood of populations coming crashing in a series of major calamities is high and getting higher. And please note: this is irrespective of any Global Warming events like ocean levels rising, more powerful hurricanes etc. etc.
Because our economies are growing in a pretty centralized way that is POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE. The globalized economy is like a tower built by kids balancing blocks and books one on top of another; at some point, it all becomes shaky.
Our own civilization is built around central infrastructures that invisibly enable massive human populations (and their massive consumptions) to be maintained, especially in urban areas: power-supply, water-supply, residential and office buildings, highways, railways, food-supply, industries, banking system, stock markets... The degree of reliance on these infrastructures grows exponentially year from year, especially in a place like Mumbai, India, where I live.
For instance, all around me, I see high-rise apartments built to accommodate the burgeoning consumer-class. A lot of these folks are making their money thanks to outsourcing from the US. Without lifts and piped water-supply, high-rises would become uninhabitable.
Now let me project a worst-case scenario for Indian metropolises that could very easily turn into reality.
[Responding to the early comments, let me add a caveat here: Remember, what I've projected here is a WORST-case scenario, not a BAD-case scenario. Reality, as it plays out, doesn't usually follow the worst-case scenario projections... it stops at being merely bad. Usually, NOT ALL THE DOMINOS FALL DOWN... a few remain half-fallen, preventing the rest from toppling.]
THE SCENARIO
The projected US recession in 2008 is deeper than expected. A huge ball of bad debts concealed in the US banking system starts to unravel, causing a tightening of debts and an economic slowdown. In a desperate attempt to create more jobs in the US Economy, the Congress passes laws that ban outsourcing to India.
And this move is emulated by EU Nations who aren't doing too well either.
As the outsourced work dries up, BPOs downsize their workforce and many shut down after struggling along for some months. Millions of apartment-dwellers in Mumbai are rendered jobless. These are currently big spenders running up credit-card debts and supporting the Indian economy with their extravagant purchases.
As these millions of unemployed folks struggle to subsist in the changed scenario, they set off a domino effect that plays out over a two-year period:
Domino 1: They default on credit-card repayments, car loans, housing loans and stop paying their electricity bills. The banking sector takes a hit at first as bad debts mount, and then begins a spate of repossessed houses and cars. Power supply companies, which are now in the private sector, cut off their supply, rendering their apartments unlivable.
Domino 2: As these guys flood the job market, salaries in other sectors of the economy drop precipitously, making more people unable to support their existing bank loans that were taken under the belief that the economy was rock-solid. More repossessions, real estate prices drop, consumer goods companies (durables as well as fast-moving stuff like biscuits and ketchups) start suffering losses. Sales of new automobile drop off as secondhand cars flood the market at distress prices. Mobile phone usage starts dropping off as unpaid bills mount.
Domino 3: Stock markets start tripping and falling, multi-billionaires with their fortunes riding on these high-return instruments realize that these are high-risk too. They start pulling out, close on the heels of foreign investors (including US Provident Funds), and the markets collapse in ruins on the heads of millions of middle-class investors spread all over the country -- in cities big and small.
Domino 4: A number of banks collapse due to large amounts of unrecoverable debts. Very large numbers of middleclass and poor depositors are hit, reduced to rags. The assumptions on which banking rates of returns are calculated are all up in the air. Confidence in banking vanishes. Confidence in markets turns bitter. Confidence in government and administration crumbles. The Finance Minister stops trying to reassure the public and maintains a descreet silence.
Domino 5: Hitherto rich people living and working in high-rises turn paupers, and power-supply to many buildings is cut off and electricity bills go unpaid. No lifts, no water-supply... a large part of the city of Mumbai ceases to be inhabitable. These apartments have no market value, and so they are deserted by their owners. The real estate market crumbles.
Domino 6: Law & Order problems abound -- theft, robberies, murders, suicides, forgery, defaults on debts. Movement of essential goods along road and rail corridors becomes a high-risk business. A state of emergency is declared and the world's largest democracy becomes a police-state.
Domino 7: As medical and surgical supplies drop off and health issues are aggraved by stress, water-shortages, poor hygiene etc, mortality rates surge. Air quality deteriorates as wooden doors, windows and furniture is burnt as cooking fuel. The medical infrastructure becomes overloaded and then collapses. Hospitals become places where sick people go to die rather than to recover.
Domino 8: As death rates spiral upwards, safe disposal of the dead becomes a major economic and administrative issue. Rotting bodies lie uncremated, unburied in deserted high-rise apartments. Friendly neighbourhood stray dogs respond to the abundance of sheltering darkness and human flesh by turning feral, hunting in packs. They revert to being like the wolves and wild dogs that they have descended from. Children and the infirm are now no longer safe.
Domino 9: Deprived of food supplies, city folks -- those who are fit and capable of manual work -- migrate towards rural areas and start invading rural populations. Pitched battles for territory ensue. Communal and caste feuds, never really forgotten, rear their ugly heads. Bloodbaths follow.
Domino 10: National boundaries are now difficult to defend as the overloaded administration crumbles. Many in the administration and in security forces have not received salaries for months; they have few loyalties left. State and Central government offices, municipal offices, panchayat offices, army barracks... all lie deserted. There is no government; it is every man for himself.
In December 2009, a free-for-all state of anarchy prevails over a once-proud economy that boasted of 9.5% GDP growth.
India Shining, R.I.P.
THE END
Variations of this scenario would apply to many nations in the world that are on the economic fast-track. In such instances, how long would it take for national populations to crash to, say, one-sixth of their current strengths? A decade? Or even less maybe?
Hate to say this, but I think each passing year of economic growth increases the odds of a catastrophe of such magnitude. The tower of blocks will definitely fall within the next couple of decades.
The challenge before us is really to anticipate it, awaken the administration to such risks and build safety-valves into the system while bringing down the size of this tower of insecurities.
And this, let me stress, holds true irrespective of whether climate change is happening or not. Even in a world devoid of global warming, the current paradigm of economic growth is a dead-end street.
So let us stop debating about global warming, alternative sources of energy etc. and start bearing down on the brakes of the economy, folks. Slow down economic growth, let the foam and fizz of bullish expectations settle down to a realistic level...
And then let us, with due urgency, try to enter into a phase of consolidating the economy -- redistributing the gains of growth in more socially and ecologically equitable ways. This will help us avoid the brunt of 'discontinuities' when they occur.
A few ideas on how to slow down economic growth
1) Individual consumers need to consciously consume less of whatever it is that they consume. The government or NGOs should incentivate families to benchmark their current levels of consumption on various fronts, then reduce them.
2) Advertising aimed at making people buy more should be tapered off. Only adverts giving information should be allowed.
3) Roadside advertising hoardings should be reduced by 50%, and they should not be illuminated, as they use up precious energy for a relatively non-productive purpose.
4) Stop adding power generation capacities, whether thermal or otherwise. Freeze them at existing capacities and merely replace thermal capacities with wind-energy and solar generation capacities.
5) Stop registering new private vehicles. NGOs or government should incentivate people to give up private transport (for instance by giving them free passes on public transport with 10-year validity.)
6) Each year, taper off the numbers of private transport wheels by 10% or more, and enhance the capacity of public transport by 20%. This will result in a net improvement in the quality of transportation and reduced congestion each year.
7) Enforce a one-child policy with both carrot and stick. This means that within the span of 60-70 years, population would go down by about 50%.
8) Build infrastructure for localised means of recreation such as playgrounds and stadiums, both indoor and outdoor. Encourage greater participation in physical and mental sporting activities by organizing competitions etc.
8) Civic and governmental efforts to improve quality of life are crucial to wean off people from the rat-race.
PS: This is not saying that we shall have no more problems, and shall live happily ever after. Every situation inevitably has its own set of problems... and we shall have to be alert and aware to deal with them as they arise.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
A Call to Arms
There is a myth that we all are subscribing to, and this is the myth of UNLIMITED ECONOMIC GROWTH. We all believe that barring a few minor hiccups ('corrections’ in stock-market jargon), a steady rate of GDP growth can be indefinitely sustained even as human population growth can be indefinitely sustained.
In other words, our learned economists really do believe that year after year, the goodies that we consume can grow in volume and quality, and our lives can get better and more luxurious. They base all their projections on this theory. And we ordinary folks believe in this myth propagated by our economists and our governments.
The theory of nuclear energy or solar energy replacing fossil fuels as a source of UNLIMITED ENERGY TO FUEL UNLIMITED GROWTH is a corollary to the previous myth.
Folks, these are myths! Let's face it!
Global Warming is a real emergency! We really must stop hiding our collective heads in the sand, and look at the real solutions. Not just small adjustment-type solutions like 'Let us educate more people, learn to switch off the lights, conserve bathwater and see what happens'!
The key is: WE ALL NEED TO CUT BACK ON CONSUMPTION ON A LARGE SCALE!
And yes, that is defintely gonna hurt. Like the muscle-boys say while working out in gyms, if it ain't hurtin', it ain't workin'.
Cutting back consumption means coming out of our addiction to credit cards, private vehicles, packaged goodies, the mania for owning the 'latest model' of every electronic toy designed for adults -- such as camera-phones, flat-screen televisions and more swish cars.
Of course reduced consumption by all those of us who are overconsuming resources (and putting several tonnes of CO2 into the air every year) will definitely mean NEGATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES!
But this is a necessary shot of bitter medicine, and we have to take it, like it or not!
It also means PUTTING OUR CAREERS on back-burners. Let us forget our obsession with maintaining a nice gradient of promotions, salary raises and increases in quarterly profits, please!
Can some of us please start petitioning our governments to STOP REGISTERING NEW PRIVATE TRANSPORT VEHICLES, which compete with public transport and lower their efficiencies? We need to cap their numbers and then reduce their numbers every year while swiftly stepping up PUBLIC TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE to enable more energy-efficient movements.
We also need to petition airlines to STOP REWARDING FREQUENT FLYERS. We need to fly around less! Let’s try to make do with internet, tele-conferencing, video-conferencing and email-groups, for Chrissake! We need to benchmark so that the numbers of journeys by flights and all means of transport are brought down.
We need to petition banks to stop rewarding BIG CREDIT-CARD SPENDERS and indeed, to cap the growth of credit cards at existing levels! We need to consume what requires less manufacturing, less packaging and less transportation. For instance, let us replace that bottle of coke with a nice home-brewed cuppa chai!
And last but not least, citizens of developed and developing nations need to take the lead in forcing their governments to ACTIVELY SEEK NEGATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES for a few years as a way of shaving the head off the CO2 emissions, and reducing the rampant consumerism that we all are habituated to!
I’m looking for thinking people to join me in actively triggering and leading a movement to spread this mindset of cooling down our individual and collective economic habits. (I already have a small group that includes a professor of climatology and a young entrepreneur. I am also on the Global Warming Committee of a chamber of commerce, and I've been talking my head off at all sorts of fora... but we need lots more to generate a momentum for activism.)
I am not talking merely about spreading awareness; there's that, but we need to do lots more, and we need to do it NOW! Please let us stop pretending that this is a problem that we can deal with at our leisure, post-retirement.
People in all cities are urged to contact me, but I really am hoping to network most actively with people who are in Mumbai.
I'm giving you folks my gmail address and mobile number to tell you that I really do mean business, and have no time for pussy-footing around this issue. If you stand convinced that this is an urgent problem that is crying out for action, please contact me now. (friendlyghos@gmail.com, mob:
98215 88114)
Warm Regards,
Krish (a.k.a. Friendly Ghost)
Mumbai
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