Humans are not one among millions of species on earth. We are, from our planet’s point of view, an out-of-control pestilence like a swarm of locusts. From earth’s point of view, our population needs to be culled to one-tenth or less for the good of the majority of species. I endorse that point of view, regardless of what it implies for my family’s future – regardless of the untold sufferings that must follow when such a culling happens.
Let us estimate our growing collective burden on earth. Our numbers grew from an estimated 200 million in the year 1 AD to 275 million in 1000 AD. This crossed one billion by 1850. This grew to 4 billion by 1975, which grew to 6.6 billion in 2006. By the year 2050, We are likely to cross the nine billion mark.
This means that a population of 75 million – the increase in the entire first millennium after Christ – is added to the global population every year currently!
Worse still, what each individual consumes is also sharply on the rise. The amount of earth’s resources that each individual currently consumes in one year would have been enough to sustain him/her over an entire lifetime a century ago! So, thanks to our continuing technological advancements, the ‘footprint’ of each human being on this planet is thousands of times larger and heavier than originally ‘intended’.
The price is paid by other species. The natural level of extinction is about one species per million species per year, or between 10 and 100 species per year (counting all organisms such as insects, bacteria and fungi... and not just vertebrates). As against this, going by the rate at which the area of tropical forests are being reduced, and their large numbers of specialized species, we are currently losing 27,000 species per year to extinction from those habitats alone. Another similar number of species are being driven to extinction in other habitats, such as the seas.
Is the life of homo sapiens worth the lives of so many species? Are we so much superior to the rest of creation?
No, I sincerely believe we are not worth it.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Global Warming: Pressing the Panic Button
I want to share an insight with you. Pardon me for for my abruptness and oversimplifications if any, because of my effort to keep it very simple and brief.
For millions of years, nature has been taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere -- taking carbon out of circulation -- and stashing it away, not only as trees, but also as enormous coal and crude-oil reserves under the earth. But since the discovery of the steam engine and the industrial revolution, mankind has been taking these carbon and hydrocarbon reserves and burning them. Every passing year, we thus undo the work of a few thousand years of nature. Humankind is now a rampant force of nature.
Our GDP and per-capita consumption is rapidly rising at close to 10%, and so the carbon footprint of each individual human-being on earth is doubling every 20 years or so. [Very brief explanation: Each extra shirt we buy and stash in our cupboards or each apple that we eat that has been flown in from Australia or China, or even lorried in from Himachal Pradesh, represents an unnecessary load of carbon in the air that we have contributed.]
As our population grows at a galloping pace -- rising as much in 10 years as it did in the entire millennium between 1 AD and 1000 AD -- the collective carbon footprint of humankind doubles every 10 years or so. In other words, the 'weight' or 'impact' of humankind on earth is doubling every decade.
The upshot of having more carbon-dioxide in the air than ever before in the last 650,000 years is: All that carbon dioxide is storing solar heat in the atmosphere. This increased heat energy will transform, and is already transforming into more kinetic energy as (i) more rapid evaporation and precipatation (ii) more frequent, widespread and powerful hurricanes (iii) a higher water-level in the oceans as the polar ice-caps melt, stronger waves and tidal movements, which will over the next decade require every human settlement and activity on the coastline including fishing villages, metros and ports to be relocated further inland.
I don't know if remedies are available. Personally, I think we are already in deep shit and blissfully unaware of it, like a guy who is falling to his death from a skyscraper, but is heard saying as he whooshes past the 10th-floor window, "So far so good! Everything feels great!"
Still, because of our human nature, we like to believe that it is never too late to mend.
Our economies, which depend primarily on combustion, need to be urgently unhooked from combustibles and hooked onto alternative sources even if they are uneconomical at first. Energy from combustibles seems economical only because it does not take into account the environmental cost; in other words, such energy is environmentally 'subsidized'. However, such subsidies are no longer sustainable, and there is an enormous 'natural deficit' that has built up that needs to be balanced.
So we need to learn to consume solar energy, wind energy, tidal and hydro-electric or human-generated energy, even if it seems terribly uneconomical at first. Simultaneously, we need to learn to live with drastically lowered energy consumption.
Immediate measure 1: We need to impress on decision-makers (and not just general public) at various levels the urgency of our situation. We must make presentations before people in the government and administration at all levels, as often as possible.
Immediate measure 2: We need to show that we ourselves believe in our message. It is not very convincing for us to continue to go around in our big air-conditioned cars and sit in air-conditioned offices, air-conditioned homes and air-conditioned chambers of commerce. We need to show our willingness to step down into less-stylish cars, or maybe even scooters, public transport etc. We need to send out a clear message by (1) scaling down our own usage of electricity by opening our windows and using ceiling-fans etc, (2) walking and bicycling as much as possible instead of taking motorised transport and (3) depending on non-energy consuming forms of recreation such as going for long walks or playing cards together.
Immediate measure 3: To make a dent on the public consciousness, send out a clear message, and set off a mass movement, those of us who are aware of this problem and deeply concerned about it need to do something emblematic. How about something like dressing very simply and riding a bicycle to work (and everywhere else) one day of every week – something that is directly opposed to our increasingly ostentatious lifestyle?
Footnote: I do realize that these ideas are not exactly "civilized", and they make me sound like I urgently need a shrink. But maybe taking such drastic measures will show that we clearly understand the gravity of our situation. Our collective existence depends on this sort of response.
Statement of Our Grave Situation
For millions of years, nature has been taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere -- taking carbon out of circulation -- and stashing it away, not only as trees, but also as enormous coal and crude-oil reserves under the earth. But since the discovery of the steam engine and the industrial revolution, mankind has been taking these carbon and hydrocarbon reserves and burning them. Every passing year, we thus undo the work of a few thousand years of nature. Humankind is now a rampant force of nature.
Our GDP and per-capita consumption is rapidly rising at close to 10%, and so the carbon footprint of each individual human-being on earth is doubling every 20 years or so. [Very brief explanation: Each extra shirt we buy and stash in our cupboards or each apple that we eat that has been flown in from Australia or China, or even lorried in from Himachal Pradesh, represents an unnecessary load of carbon in the air that we have contributed.]
As our population grows at a galloping pace -- rising as much in 10 years as it did in the entire millennium between 1 AD and 1000 AD -- the collective carbon footprint of humankind doubles every 10 years or so. In other words, the 'weight' or 'impact' of humankind on earth is doubling every decade.
The upshot of having more carbon-dioxide in the air than ever before in the last 650,000 years is: All that carbon dioxide is storing solar heat in the atmosphere. This increased heat energy will transform, and is already transforming into more kinetic energy as (i) more rapid evaporation and precipatation (ii) more frequent, widespread and powerful hurricanes (iii) a higher water-level in the oceans as the polar ice-caps melt, stronger waves and tidal movements, which will over the next decade require every human settlement and activity on the coastline including fishing villages, metros and ports to be relocated further inland.
I don't know if remedies are available. Personally, I think we are already in deep shit and blissfully unaware of it, like a guy who is falling to his death from a skyscraper, but is heard saying as he whooshes past the 10th-floor window, "So far so good! Everything feels great!"
Still, because of our human nature, we like to believe that it is never too late to mend.
Statement of One Possible Remedy
Our economies, which depend primarily on combustion, need to be urgently unhooked from combustibles and hooked onto alternative sources even if they are uneconomical at first. Energy from combustibles seems economical only because it does not take into account the environmental cost; in other words, such energy is environmentally 'subsidized'. However, such subsidies are no longer sustainable, and there is an enormous 'natural deficit' that has built up that needs to be balanced.
So we need to learn to consume solar energy, wind energy, tidal and hydro-electric or human-generated energy, even if it seems terribly uneconomical at first. Simultaneously, we need to learn to live with drastically lowered energy consumption.
Immediate measure 1: We need to impress on decision-makers (and not just general public) at various levels the urgency of our situation. We must make presentations before people in the government and administration at all levels, as often as possible.
Immediate measure 2: We need to show that we ourselves believe in our message. It is not very convincing for us to continue to go around in our big air-conditioned cars and sit in air-conditioned offices, air-conditioned homes and air-conditioned chambers of commerce. We need to show our willingness to step down into less-stylish cars, or maybe even scooters, public transport etc. We need to send out a clear message by (1) scaling down our own usage of electricity by opening our windows and using ceiling-fans etc, (2) walking and bicycling as much as possible instead of taking motorised transport and (3) depending on non-energy consuming forms of recreation such as going for long walks or playing cards together.
Immediate measure 3: To make a dent on the public consciousness, send out a clear message, and set off a mass movement, those of us who are aware of this problem and deeply concerned about it need to do something emblematic. How about something like dressing very simply and riding a bicycle to work (and everywhere else) one day of every week – something that is directly opposed to our increasingly ostentatious lifestyle?
Footnote: I do realize that these ideas are not exactly "civilized", and they make me sound like I urgently need a shrink. But maybe taking such drastic measures will show that we clearly understand the gravity of our situation. Our collective existence depends on this sort of response.
I am a Big Bully on Wheels
If you folks are civilized when you are behind the steering wheel, then maybe you are a great deal more evolved than I. When I am driving down a road, and come across a bunch of pedestrians trying to cross the road, I don't slow down unless the signal is red. I flash my headlights menacingly, honk my horn and speed up. Translated into words, this action means, "Watch out! I'm bigger and clad in a metal armour! So step out of my way... or else!"
When a pedestrian stands in front of my accelerating vehicle, this isn't a friendly warning but a direct threat of physical harm. From where he stands, my car isn't a vehicle of transportation; for him, it is a weapon of death, like a loaded cannon ready to fire.
No, we don't look at this as a social injustice because we are all so USED TO IT, dammit! Just as, in the days of feudalistic zamindari and untouchability, neither the overlords nor the downtrodden felt that they were part of an unjust system! They felt it was the only correct way for a society to function!
Just this morning, I flashed my headlights and prevented a bunch of schoolgirls from crossing the highway in front of my car. My thinking was: Let them cross behind me if they can because I'm in a tearing hurry.
All citizens are not equal
You remember that famous quote from George Orwell's novella, Animal Farm, where the pigs declare, "All animals are equal, but some of us are more equal than others"?
Like the pigs, we motorists -- especially those of us in cars -- are 'more equal' than others. We have special rights. We have a special right-of-way that the bitch-goddess of economic superiority has bestowed upon us.
Our comfort and speed takes precedence over the comfort and safety of pedestrians, because we are capable of buying expensive vehicles, fuel and vehicle insurance, and paying road tax.
It is no secret that wheels are a status symbol, a social pecking-order based on wealth. In ascending order -- bicycle, scooter, motorbike, small car (Maruti 800), larger car (Fiat Palio, Maruti Esteem), larger foreign car (Honda Civic), SUVs. A Toyota Land Cruiser or Mitsubishi Pajero sits near the top of the heap.
I'm ok with status-symbols; it's a natural human tendency. But...
Have you noticed that the word 'pedestrian' is tainted with contempt? Also it's hindi equivalent, Raaste pe chalta aadmi ?
When did the basic human-being become an object of contempt? We aren't born with wheels, you know! We are all basically pedestrians, but why is it so easy to forget this when we are behind a steering wheel?
Visualize the sheer inequity of this situation: I am one guy securely seat-belted in a well-cushioned airconditioned bubble of metal and glass, and capable of travelling at 90 km per hour. As always, I am in a tearing hurry to go somewhere. Therefore, my right-or-way takes precedence over that of six kids carrying a load of books in the noontime sun, balancing precariously near a road divider amidst a confusion of speeding vehicles, noise and smoke, looking for a chance to safely cross the highway and get to school before the starting bell.
Some questions
What gave me the right-or-way over these kids? What gave me the right to assign my time and comfort greater priority than their time, comfort and above all, SAFETY?
Was it the fact that I could do them physical harm --a sense of raw power -- that gave me the right-of-way? Must the weak yield to the strong in our society?
Was it my vehicle's greater size and bulk -- a ton of sleek metal and glass hurtling down the road like a charging rhino? Must humans yield to machines in our society?
Was it my greater speed and momentum -- the fact that I was going much faster, and would have to sacrifice my speed in order to let them pass? Must human 'inefficiency' yield to mechanical 'efficiency' in our society?
Was it the fact that I was obviously a person with more visible money-power, and therefore my time and comfort was more important than theirs? Must mere humans bow before money-power in our society?
Was it the fact that the road was a motorists' territory -- and therefore a pedestrian must somehow cope and sneak past as best as he can, at his own risk? Must we all gradually give up our rights as 'mere humans' and pedestrians in our own neighbourhoods, as roads become increasingly more common, wider and busier?
To my children, an apology
My children cannot safely walk to school. They cannot ride a bicycle to school. I would not even advise them to walk to and from the nearest suburban railway station, although it is at an easy walking distance which I myself often walk.
They cannot do all these things because the rights of people-on-wheels are rampaging the basic rights of people-on-foot.
Unless my children become people-on-wheels, they are underprivileged citizens in my city. They are not equal citizens. Their basic right to walk is not respected by my government or even by motorists like myself.
For robbing my children of their birthright to walk any distance in safety, I hang my head in shame.
And with tears of anger and regret, I swear to restore to my children their birthright. So Help me God!
When a pedestrian stands in front of my accelerating vehicle, this isn't a friendly warning but a direct threat of physical harm. From where he stands, my car isn't a vehicle of transportation; for him, it is a weapon of death, like a loaded cannon ready to fire.
No, we don't look at this as a social injustice because we are all so USED TO IT, dammit! Just as, in the days of feudalistic zamindari and untouchability, neither the overlords nor the downtrodden felt that they were part of an unjust system! They felt it was the only correct way for a society to function!
Just this morning, I flashed my headlights and prevented a bunch of schoolgirls from crossing the highway in front of my car. My thinking was: Let them cross behind me if they can because I'm in a tearing hurry.
All citizens are not equal
You remember that famous quote from George Orwell's novella, Animal Farm, where the pigs declare, "All animals are equal, but some of us are more equal than others"?
Like the pigs, we motorists -- especially those of us in cars -- are 'more equal' than others. We have special rights. We have a special right-of-way that the bitch-goddess of economic superiority has bestowed upon us.
Our comfort and speed takes precedence over the comfort and safety of pedestrians, because we are capable of buying expensive vehicles, fuel and vehicle insurance, and paying road tax.
It is no secret that wheels are a status symbol, a social pecking-order based on wealth. In ascending order -- bicycle, scooter, motorbike, small car (Maruti 800), larger car (Fiat Palio, Maruti Esteem), larger foreign car (Honda Civic), SUVs. A Toyota Land Cruiser or Mitsubishi Pajero sits near the top of the heap.
I'm ok with status-symbols; it's a natural human tendency. But...
Have you noticed that the word 'pedestrian' is tainted with contempt? Also it's hindi equivalent, Raaste pe chalta aadmi ?
When did the basic human-being become an object of contempt? We aren't born with wheels, you know! We are all basically pedestrians, but why is it so easy to forget this when we are behind a steering wheel?
Visualize the sheer inequity of this situation: I am one guy securely seat-belted in a well-cushioned airconditioned bubble of metal and glass, and capable of travelling at 90 km per hour. As always, I am in a tearing hurry to go somewhere. Therefore, my right-or-way takes precedence over that of six kids carrying a load of books in the noontime sun, balancing precariously near a road divider amidst a confusion of speeding vehicles, noise and smoke, looking for a chance to safely cross the highway and get to school before the starting bell.
Some questions
What gave me the right-or-way over these kids? What gave me the right to assign my time and comfort greater priority than their time, comfort and above all, SAFETY?
Was it the fact that I could do them physical harm --a sense of raw power -- that gave me the right-of-way? Must the weak yield to the strong in our society?
Was it my vehicle's greater size and bulk -- a ton of sleek metal and glass hurtling down the road like a charging rhino? Must humans yield to machines in our society?
Was it my greater speed and momentum -- the fact that I was going much faster, and would have to sacrifice my speed in order to let them pass? Must human 'inefficiency' yield to mechanical 'efficiency' in our society?
Was it the fact that I was obviously a person with more visible money-power, and therefore my time and comfort was more important than theirs? Must mere humans bow before money-power in our society?
Was it the fact that the road was a motorists' territory -- and therefore a pedestrian must somehow cope and sneak past as best as he can, at his own risk? Must we all gradually give up our rights as 'mere humans' and pedestrians in our own neighbourhoods, as roads become increasingly more common, wider and busier?
To my children, an apology
My children cannot safely walk to school. They cannot ride a bicycle to school. I would not even advise them to walk to and from the nearest suburban railway station, although it is at an easy walking distance which I myself often walk.
They cannot do all these things because the rights of people-on-wheels are rampaging the basic rights of people-on-foot.
Unless my children become people-on-wheels, they are underprivileged citizens in my city. They are not equal citizens. Their basic right to walk is not respected by my government or even by motorists like myself.
For robbing my children of their birthright to walk any distance in safety, I hang my head in shame.
And with tears of anger and regret, I swear to restore to my children their birthright. So Help me God!
A Worst-case Scenario for India and Some Thoughts on How to Reduce its Impact
While participating in a debate on growthmadness.org, I was struck by the fact that many among us are actually hoping to find a way out of our current predicament WITHOUT CHAOS and major social-economic-political disruptions... or what pokerfaced economists call Discontinuities.
I think that's unlikely. We are jolly well going to have some 'discontinuities' on this planet, regardless of whether we act positively or just drift happily along seeking economic growth.
The likelihood of populations coming crashing in a series of major calamities is high and getting higher. And please note: this is irrespective of any Global Warming events like ocean levels rising, more powerful hurricanes etc. etc.
Because our economies are growing in a pretty centralized way that is POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE. The globalized economy is like a tower built by kids balancing blocks and books one on top of another; at some point, it all becomes shaky.
Our own civilization is built around central infrastructures that invisibly enable massive human populations (and their massive consumptions) to be maintained, especially in urban areas: power-supply, water-supply, residential and office buildings, highways, railways, food-supply, industries, banking system, stock markets... The degree of reliance on these infrastructures grows exponentially year from year, especially in a place like Mumbai, India, where I live.
For instance, all around me, I see high-rise apartments built to accommodate the burgeoning consumer-class. A lot of these folks are making their money thanks to outsourcing from the US. Without lifts and piped water-supply, high-rises would become uninhabitable.
Now let me project a worst-case scenario for Indian metropolises that could very easily turn into reality.
[Responding to the early comments, let me add a caveat here: Remember, what I've projected here is a WORST-case scenario, not a BAD-case scenario. Reality, as it plays out, doesn't usually follow the worst-case scenario projections... it stops at being merely bad. Usually, NOT ALL THE DOMINOS FALL DOWN... a few remain half-fallen, preventing the rest from toppling.]
THE SCENARIO
The projected US recession in 2008 is deeper than expected. A huge ball of bad debts concealed in the US banking system starts to unravel, causing a tightening of debts and an economic slowdown. In a desperate attempt to create more jobs in the US Economy, the Congress passes laws that ban outsourcing to India.
And this move is emulated by EU Nations who aren't doing too well either.
As the outsourced work dries up, BPOs downsize their workforce and many shut down after struggling along for some months. Millions of apartment-dwellers in Mumbai are rendered jobless. These are currently big spenders running up credit-card debts and supporting the Indian economy with their extravagant purchases.
As these millions of unemployed folks struggle to subsist in the changed scenario, they set off a domino effect that plays out over a two-year period:
Domino 1: They default on credit-card repayments, car loans, housing loans and stop paying their electricity bills. The banking sector takes a hit at first as bad debts mount, and then begins a spate of repossessed houses and cars. Power supply companies, which are now in the private sector, cut off their supply, rendering their apartments unlivable.
Domino 2: As these guys flood the job market, salaries in other sectors of the economy drop precipitously, making more people unable to support their existing bank loans that were taken under the belief that the economy was rock-solid. More repossessions, real estate prices drop, consumer goods companies (durables as well as fast-moving stuff like biscuits and ketchups) start suffering losses. Sales of new automobile drop off as secondhand cars flood the market at distress prices. Mobile phone usage starts dropping off as unpaid bills mount.
Domino 3: Stock markets start tripping and falling, multi-billionaires with their fortunes riding on these high-return instruments realize that these are high-risk too. They start pulling out, close on the heels of foreign investors (including US Provident Funds), and the markets collapse in ruins on the heads of millions of middle-class investors spread all over the country -- in cities big and small.
Domino 4: A number of banks collapse due to large amounts of unrecoverable debts. Very large numbers of middleclass and poor depositors are hit, reduced to rags. The assumptions on which banking rates of returns are calculated are all up in the air. Confidence in banking vanishes. Confidence in markets turns bitter. Confidence in government and administration crumbles. The Finance Minister stops trying to reassure the public and maintains a descreet silence.
Domino 5: Hitherto rich people living and working in high-rises turn paupers, and power-supply to many buildings is cut off and electricity bills go unpaid. No lifts, no water-supply... a large part of the city of Mumbai ceases to be inhabitable. These apartments have no market value, and so they are deserted by their owners. The real estate market crumbles.
Domino 6: Law & Order problems abound -- theft, robberies, murders, suicides, forgery, defaults on debts. Movement of essential goods along road and rail corridors becomes a high-risk business. A state of emergency is declared and the world's largest democracy becomes a police-state.
Domino 7: As medical and surgical supplies drop off and health issues are aggraved by stress, water-shortages, poor hygiene etc, mortality rates surge. Air quality deteriorates as wooden doors, windows and furniture is burnt as cooking fuel. The medical infrastructure becomes overloaded and then collapses. Hospitals become places where sick people go to die rather than to recover.
Domino 8: As death rates spiral upwards, safe disposal of the dead becomes a major economic and administrative issue. Rotting bodies lie uncremated, unburied in deserted high-rise apartments. Friendly neighbourhood stray dogs respond to the abundance of sheltering darkness and human flesh by turning feral, hunting in packs. They revert to being like the wolves and wild dogs that they have descended from. Children and the infirm are now no longer safe.
Domino 9: Deprived of food supplies, city folks -- those who are fit and capable of manual work -- migrate towards rural areas and start invading rural populations. Pitched battles for territory ensue. Communal and caste feuds, never really forgotten, rear their ugly heads. Bloodbaths follow.
Domino 10: National boundaries are now difficult to defend as the overloaded administration crumbles. Many in the administration and in security forces have not received salaries for months; they have few loyalties left. State and Central government offices, municipal offices, panchayat offices, army barracks... all lie deserted. There is no government; it is every man for himself.
In December 2009, a free-for-all state of anarchy prevails over a once-proud economy that boasted of 9.5% GDP growth.
India Shining, R.I.P.
THE END
Variations of this scenario would apply to many nations in the world that are on the economic fast-track. In such instances, how long would it take for national populations to crash to, say, one-sixth of their current strengths? A decade? Or even less maybe?
Hate to say this, but I think each passing year of economic growth increases the odds of a catastrophe of such magnitude. The tower of blocks will definitely fall within the next couple of decades.
The challenge before us is really to anticipate it, awaken the administration to such risks and build safety-valves into the system while bringing down the size of this tower of insecurities.
And this, let me stress, holds true irrespective of whether climate change is happening or not. Even in a world devoid of global warming, the current paradigm of economic growth is a dead-end street.
So let us stop debating about global warming, alternative sources of energy etc. and start bearing down on the brakes of the economy, folks. Slow down economic growth, let the foam and fizz of bullish expectations settle down to a realistic level...
And then let us, with due urgency, try to enter into a phase of consolidating the economy -- redistributing the gains of growth in more socially and ecologically equitable ways. This will help us avoid the brunt of 'discontinuities' when they occur.
A few ideas on how to slow down economic growth
1) Individual consumers need to consciously consume less of whatever it is that they consume. The government or NGOs should incentivate families to benchmark their current levels of consumption on various fronts, then reduce them.
2) Advertising aimed at making people buy more should be tapered off. Only adverts giving information should be allowed.
3) Roadside advertising hoardings should be reduced by 50%, and they should not be illuminated, as they use up precious energy for a relatively non-productive purpose.
4) Stop adding power generation capacities, whether thermal or otherwise. Freeze them at existing capacities and merely replace thermal capacities with wind-energy and solar generation capacities.
5) Stop registering new private vehicles. NGOs or government should incentivate people to give up private transport (for instance by giving them free passes on public transport with 10-year validity.)
6) Each year, taper off the numbers of private transport wheels by 10% or more, and enhance the capacity of public transport by 20%. This will result in a net improvement in the quality of transportation and reduced congestion each year.
7) Enforce a one-child policy with both carrot and stick. This means that within the span of 60-70 years, population would go down by about 50%.
8) Build infrastructure for localised means of recreation such as playgrounds and stadiums, both indoor and outdoor. Encourage greater participation in physical and mental sporting activities by organizing competitions etc.
8) Civic and governmental efforts to improve quality of life are crucial to wean off people from the rat-race.
PS: This is not saying that we shall have no more problems, and shall live happily ever after. Every situation inevitably has its own set of problems... and we shall have to be alert and aware to deal with them as they arise.
I think that's unlikely. We are jolly well going to have some 'discontinuities' on this planet, regardless of whether we act positively or just drift happily along seeking economic growth.
The likelihood of populations coming crashing in a series of major calamities is high and getting higher. And please note: this is irrespective of any Global Warming events like ocean levels rising, more powerful hurricanes etc. etc.
Because our economies are growing in a pretty centralized way that is POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE. The globalized economy is like a tower built by kids balancing blocks and books one on top of another; at some point, it all becomes shaky.
Our own civilization is built around central infrastructures that invisibly enable massive human populations (and their massive consumptions) to be maintained, especially in urban areas: power-supply, water-supply, residential and office buildings, highways, railways, food-supply, industries, banking system, stock markets... The degree of reliance on these infrastructures grows exponentially year from year, especially in a place like Mumbai, India, where I live.
For instance, all around me, I see high-rise apartments built to accommodate the burgeoning consumer-class. A lot of these folks are making their money thanks to outsourcing from the US. Without lifts and piped water-supply, high-rises would become uninhabitable.
Now let me project a worst-case scenario for Indian metropolises that could very easily turn into reality.
[Responding to the early comments, let me add a caveat here: Remember, what I've projected here is a WORST-case scenario, not a BAD-case scenario. Reality, as it plays out, doesn't usually follow the worst-case scenario projections... it stops at being merely bad. Usually, NOT ALL THE DOMINOS FALL DOWN... a few remain half-fallen, preventing the rest from toppling.]
THE SCENARIO
The projected US recession in 2008 is deeper than expected. A huge ball of bad debts concealed in the US banking system starts to unravel, causing a tightening of debts and an economic slowdown. In a desperate attempt to create more jobs in the US Economy, the Congress passes laws that ban outsourcing to India.
And this move is emulated by EU Nations who aren't doing too well either.
As the outsourced work dries up, BPOs downsize their workforce and many shut down after struggling along for some months. Millions of apartment-dwellers in Mumbai are rendered jobless. These are currently big spenders running up credit-card debts and supporting the Indian economy with their extravagant purchases.
As these millions of unemployed folks struggle to subsist in the changed scenario, they set off a domino effect that plays out over a two-year period:
Domino 1: They default on credit-card repayments, car loans, housing loans and stop paying their electricity bills. The banking sector takes a hit at first as bad debts mount, and then begins a spate of repossessed houses and cars. Power supply companies, which are now in the private sector, cut off their supply, rendering their apartments unlivable.
Domino 2: As these guys flood the job market, salaries in other sectors of the economy drop precipitously, making more people unable to support their existing bank loans that were taken under the belief that the economy was rock-solid. More repossessions, real estate prices drop, consumer goods companies (durables as well as fast-moving stuff like biscuits and ketchups) start suffering losses. Sales of new automobile drop off as secondhand cars flood the market at distress prices. Mobile phone usage starts dropping off as unpaid bills mount.
Domino 3: Stock markets start tripping and falling, multi-billionaires with their fortunes riding on these high-return instruments realize that these are high-risk too. They start pulling out, close on the heels of foreign investors (including US Provident Funds), and the markets collapse in ruins on the heads of millions of middle-class investors spread all over the country -- in cities big and small.
Domino 4: A number of banks collapse due to large amounts of unrecoverable debts. Very large numbers of middleclass and poor depositors are hit, reduced to rags. The assumptions on which banking rates of returns are calculated are all up in the air. Confidence in banking vanishes. Confidence in markets turns bitter. Confidence in government and administration crumbles. The Finance Minister stops trying to reassure the public and maintains a descreet silence.
Domino 5: Hitherto rich people living and working in high-rises turn paupers, and power-supply to many buildings is cut off and electricity bills go unpaid. No lifts, no water-supply... a large part of the city of Mumbai ceases to be inhabitable. These apartments have no market value, and so they are deserted by their owners. The real estate market crumbles.
Domino 6: Law & Order problems abound -- theft, robberies, murders, suicides, forgery, defaults on debts. Movement of essential goods along road and rail corridors becomes a high-risk business. A state of emergency is declared and the world's largest democracy becomes a police-state.
Domino 7: As medical and surgical supplies drop off and health issues are aggraved by stress, water-shortages, poor hygiene etc, mortality rates surge. Air quality deteriorates as wooden doors, windows and furniture is burnt as cooking fuel. The medical infrastructure becomes overloaded and then collapses. Hospitals become places where sick people go to die rather than to recover.
Domino 8: As death rates spiral upwards, safe disposal of the dead becomes a major economic and administrative issue. Rotting bodies lie uncremated, unburied in deserted high-rise apartments. Friendly neighbourhood stray dogs respond to the abundance of sheltering darkness and human flesh by turning feral, hunting in packs. They revert to being like the wolves and wild dogs that they have descended from. Children and the infirm are now no longer safe.
Domino 9: Deprived of food supplies, city folks -- those who are fit and capable of manual work -- migrate towards rural areas and start invading rural populations. Pitched battles for territory ensue. Communal and caste feuds, never really forgotten, rear their ugly heads. Bloodbaths follow.
Domino 10: National boundaries are now difficult to defend as the overloaded administration crumbles. Many in the administration and in security forces have not received salaries for months; they have few loyalties left. State and Central government offices, municipal offices, panchayat offices, army barracks... all lie deserted. There is no government; it is every man for himself.
In December 2009, a free-for-all state of anarchy prevails over a once-proud economy that boasted of 9.5% GDP growth.
India Shining, R.I.P.
THE END
Variations of this scenario would apply to many nations in the world that are on the economic fast-track. In such instances, how long would it take for national populations to crash to, say, one-sixth of their current strengths? A decade? Or even less maybe?
Hate to say this, but I think each passing year of economic growth increases the odds of a catastrophe of such magnitude. The tower of blocks will definitely fall within the next couple of decades.
The challenge before us is really to anticipate it, awaken the administration to such risks and build safety-valves into the system while bringing down the size of this tower of insecurities.
And this, let me stress, holds true irrespective of whether climate change is happening or not. Even in a world devoid of global warming, the current paradigm of economic growth is a dead-end street.
So let us stop debating about global warming, alternative sources of energy etc. and start bearing down on the brakes of the economy, folks. Slow down economic growth, let the foam and fizz of bullish expectations settle down to a realistic level...
And then let us, with due urgency, try to enter into a phase of consolidating the economy -- redistributing the gains of growth in more socially and ecologically equitable ways. This will help us avoid the brunt of 'discontinuities' when they occur.
A few ideas on how to slow down economic growth
1) Individual consumers need to consciously consume less of whatever it is that they consume. The government or NGOs should incentivate families to benchmark their current levels of consumption on various fronts, then reduce them.
2) Advertising aimed at making people buy more should be tapered off. Only adverts giving information should be allowed.
3) Roadside advertising hoardings should be reduced by 50%, and they should not be illuminated, as they use up precious energy for a relatively non-productive purpose.
4) Stop adding power generation capacities, whether thermal or otherwise. Freeze them at existing capacities and merely replace thermal capacities with wind-energy and solar generation capacities.
5) Stop registering new private vehicles. NGOs or government should incentivate people to give up private transport (for instance by giving them free passes on public transport with 10-year validity.)
6) Each year, taper off the numbers of private transport wheels by 10% or more, and enhance the capacity of public transport by 20%. This will result in a net improvement in the quality of transportation and reduced congestion each year.
7) Enforce a one-child policy with both carrot and stick. This means that within the span of 60-70 years, population would go down by about 50%.
8) Build infrastructure for localised means of recreation such as playgrounds and stadiums, both indoor and outdoor. Encourage greater participation in physical and mental sporting activities by organizing competitions etc.
8) Civic and governmental efforts to improve quality of life are crucial to wean off people from the rat-race.
PS: This is not saying that we shall have no more problems, and shall live happily ever after. Every situation inevitably has its own set of problems... and we shall have to be alert and aware to deal with them as they arise.
To Stop Global Warming, Stop Credit Cards & Consumer Loans
Today, we have an affluent economy, with only a small fraction of our economies' output devoted to basic needs. Environmentalists say that we are reaching the limits of growth due to ecological constraints. Here in our cities, we have not only reached the limits of human needs but overshot them many times over. What we currently have in our metros is largely overconsumption or unnecessarily luxurious consumption which has many adverse consequences on us, on our economies and on our planet.
Economic growth is no longer improving our well-being. The extra time and energy that we must spend on healthcare, children's education, commuting and just keeping pace of changes are on the rise. The quality of our surroundings -- our neighbourhood, roads, civic infrastructure etc. are deteriorating even as more and more goods flood the supermarkets.
We have reached a point of counterproductive growth; additional growth now brings diminishing benefits while causing increased social and environmental costs.
As we urban Indians have become more prosperous, we have moved from consuming necessities to consuming conveniences to consuming luxuries. We are now driving to work one-per-car and spending many hours per week in bumper-to-bumper traffic.
This has severe environmental consequences. India's phenomenal economic growth of 9.5% per annum comes at the cost of farmers being deprived of electricity, of countless creatures of all shapes and sizes being deprived of their natural habitats and their food, of countless rivers and groundwater resources being both overexploited and polluted. Due to the continuous expansion of factories for manufacturing everything from cement to SUVs to cream-biscuits expand to meet the burgeoning demand, we overdraw on planetary resources and disrupt the fine web of life by cutting its strands.
But how can we stop? How to stop so many billion people from doing all the things they do in daily life?
In my mind, I keep searching for key points that are causing our present situation. I keep trying to identify places where the cancerous tumour, so to speak, can be clearly isolated from human flesh. Because these are the places where we can start cutting away surgically, methodically, without hurting too many people.
1) Consumer credit -- loans extended by banks for purchase of new vehicles and consumer appliances -- is one of the major arteries of this cancerous tumour. Easy loans affect our purchasing decisions. How?
Two calls from an aggressive marketer of car loans is all I need to make me feel that I NEED to step up from my family car to an SUV. I start believing that it is high time I bought a bigger car. "You can afford it, Sir," says the loan agent, sleazily massaging my ego into a full-blown erection.
I think about my employee who drives the same brand of car that I drive, thanks to the same loan agent's persuasion. Then I think about my neighbour's shining new Scorpio and think about how insignificant my own vehicle (read phallic symbol) looks standing next to it.
Some advice from my friendly chartered accountant reinforces this feeling: New SUV = more tax-deductible depreciation. Also, interest on loan installments is tax-deductible.
I reason: if I trade in my present vehicle, it brings down the price of the new one a lakh or so. Then I only need to afford the reduced EMIs (Equated Monthly Instalments) on the load. Can't I afford an EMI of Rs 12,000? Of course I can; what kind of man am I if I can't afford to pay a small installment like that?!
Besides, business is looking up; that new client who I have been pursuing for six months is almost in the bag. So what if he hasn't actually signed on the dotted line? His word is as good as gold.
That decides it: I just WANT a brand-new fuel-guzzler, and I want it NOW! Never mind the price, I can afford the EMI. Of course I can... Case closed!
2) Credit cards: Visa Power -- you've got it! If you have a credit card or two, you know what it means to be a really wealthy person, because you are able to securely carry large amounts equivalent to many months' earnings in your wallet.
And when you do that, you are potentially able to do all those wonderful, beautiful, generous things that you see in TV commercials -- things that can make your wife's heart go flutter-flutter, and that will make her give you that million-dollar smile. How about buying her that diamond solitaire? Or taking her out to dinner at the Taj Princess? Or booking the Presidential suite for your wedding anniversary? Or, better still, surprising her with a couple of air-tickets to Paris... Wow, that would be such a PRICELESS moment... just like they show in Visa commercials!
Credit-card bills? What's that? Oh, just a minor detail, that's all. Stuff that happens in the background, inconspicuously, as part of routine life. Life goes on, bills get paid... they always do. So let's not waste time talking about bills. Those airline tickets are one phone-call or one mouse-click away.
The point that I'm making here is: Consumer credit and credit-cards are the hot air causing the great big Economic Growth balloon to go up... and up... and up at the current rate of 9.5% per annum. Thanks to this banking 'reform', all of us are learning to increasingly live in perpetual debt, just like the Americans whom we all adore so much that they can do no wrong, not even in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Thanks to easy consumer credit, we are all borrowing from the future. We aren't only borrowing economically, we are borrowing ecologically. As the previous article points out, "Globally, we are demanding 1.3 planets to support our lifestyles this year, and yet we only have one planet earth. Each year, we as a global community place demands on cropland, pasture, forests and fisheries that goes beyond their capacity to generate resources and absorb wastes. We are using more far more than the planet can regenerate in a year."
Conclusion: At an individual level, we should stop buying things with credit, and stop using our credit cards. It is worth cutting up our credit cards. Let us stop borrowing for the future.
And as a community of concerned citizens, let us lobby for a clampdown on consumer credit. Let us write to the government, to Reserve Bank and to individual banks and bankers.
Let each person in the banking industry be targetted with this message: Cap and roll back. Let us ask for a freeze of consumer credit at current levels this year, and a 50% reduction in the amounts of credit given each year. This would give the economy about three years to adjust to the changing scenario. (Three years is 36 months -- far more time than the economy and its stakeholders get for adjustment when the stock-markets crash or a bank collapse which happens within a few weeks time.)
Do you think there is truth in this argument? If so, please help by spreading the word.
_________________________________________________
Satyam Eva Jayate: Let the Truth Prevail.
Economic growth is no longer improving our well-being. The extra time and energy that we must spend on healthcare, children's education, commuting and just keeping pace of changes are on the rise. The quality of our surroundings -- our neighbourhood, roads, civic infrastructure etc. are deteriorating even as more and more goods flood the supermarkets.
We have reached a point of counterproductive growth; additional growth now brings diminishing benefits while causing increased social and environmental costs.
As we urban Indians have become more prosperous, we have moved from consuming necessities to consuming conveniences to consuming luxuries. We are now driving to work one-per-car and spending many hours per week in bumper-to-bumper traffic.
This has severe environmental consequences. India's phenomenal economic growth of 9.5% per annum comes at the cost of farmers being deprived of electricity, of countless creatures of all shapes and sizes being deprived of their natural habitats and their food, of countless rivers and groundwater resources being both overexploited and polluted. Due to the continuous expansion of factories for manufacturing everything from cement to SUVs to cream-biscuits expand to meet the burgeoning demand, we overdraw on planetary resources and disrupt the fine web of life by cutting its strands.
But how can we stop? How to stop so many billion people from doing all the things they do in daily life?
In my mind, I keep searching for key points that are causing our present situation. I keep trying to identify places where the cancerous tumour, so to speak, can be clearly isolated from human flesh. Because these are the places where we can start cutting away surgically, methodically, without hurting too many people.
1) Consumer credit -- loans extended by banks for purchase of new vehicles and consumer appliances -- is one of the major arteries of this cancerous tumour. Easy loans affect our purchasing decisions. How?
Two calls from an aggressive marketer of car loans is all I need to make me feel that I NEED to step up from my family car to an SUV. I start believing that it is high time I bought a bigger car. "You can afford it, Sir," says the loan agent, sleazily massaging my ego into a full-blown erection.
I think about my employee who drives the same brand of car that I drive, thanks to the same loan agent's persuasion. Then I think about my neighbour's shining new Scorpio and think about how insignificant my own vehicle (read phallic symbol) looks standing next to it.
Some advice from my friendly chartered accountant reinforces this feeling: New SUV = more tax-deductible depreciation. Also, interest on loan installments is tax-deductible.
I reason: if I trade in my present vehicle, it brings down the price of the new one a lakh or so. Then I only need to afford the reduced EMIs (Equated Monthly Instalments) on the load. Can't I afford an EMI of Rs 12,000? Of course I can; what kind of man am I if I can't afford to pay a small installment like that?!
Besides, business is looking up; that new client who I have been pursuing for six months is almost in the bag. So what if he hasn't actually signed on the dotted line? His word is as good as gold.
That decides it: I just WANT a brand-new fuel-guzzler, and I want it NOW! Never mind the price, I can afford the EMI. Of course I can... Case closed!
2) Credit cards: Visa Power -- you've got it! If you have a credit card or two, you know what it means to be a really wealthy person, because you are able to securely carry large amounts equivalent to many months' earnings in your wallet.
And when you do that, you are potentially able to do all those wonderful, beautiful, generous things that you see in TV commercials -- things that can make your wife's heart go flutter-flutter, and that will make her give you that million-dollar smile. How about buying her that diamond solitaire? Or taking her out to dinner at the Taj Princess? Or booking the Presidential suite for your wedding anniversary? Or, better still, surprising her with a couple of air-tickets to Paris... Wow, that would be such a PRICELESS moment... just like they show in Visa commercials!
Credit-card bills? What's that? Oh, just a minor detail, that's all. Stuff that happens in the background, inconspicuously, as part of routine life. Life goes on, bills get paid... they always do. So let's not waste time talking about bills. Those airline tickets are one phone-call or one mouse-click away.
The point that I'm making here is: Consumer credit and credit-cards are the hot air causing the great big Economic Growth balloon to go up... and up... and up at the current rate of 9.5% per annum. Thanks to this banking 'reform', all of us are learning to increasingly live in perpetual debt, just like the Americans whom we all adore so much that they can do no wrong, not even in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Thanks to easy consumer credit, we are all borrowing from the future. We aren't only borrowing economically, we are borrowing ecologically. As the previous article points out, "Globally, we are demanding 1.3 planets to support our lifestyles this year, and yet we only have one planet earth. Each year, we as a global community place demands on cropland, pasture, forests and fisheries that goes beyond their capacity to generate resources and absorb wastes. We are using more far more than the planet can regenerate in a year."
Conclusion: At an individual level, we should stop buying things with credit, and stop using our credit cards. It is worth cutting up our credit cards. Let us stop borrowing for the future.
And as a community of concerned citizens, let us lobby for a clampdown on consumer credit. Let us write to the government, to Reserve Bank and to individual banks and bankers.
Let each person in the banking industry be targetted with this message: Cap and roll back. Let us ask for a freeze of consumer credit at current levels this year, and a 50% reduction in the amounts of credit given each year. This would give the economy about three years to adjust to the changing scenario. (Three years is 36 months -- far more time than the economy and its stakeholders get for adjustment when the stock-markets crash or a bank collapse which happens within a few weeks time.)
Do you think there is truth in this argument? If so, please help by spreading the word.
_________________________________________________
Satyam Eva Jayate: Let the Truth Prevail.
Consumers? Or Citizens?
My prayer today is:
Let us stop thinking of ourselves and of one another as CONSUMERS. Let us remember that we are CITIZENS.
Consumers care about their various desires and their right to fulfil those desires. Being a consumer is about thinking of rights and opportunities to exploit for pleasure or for gain. It is about deep-seated but usually hidden assumptions such as: More is better.
Big is beautiful.
New is good.
Having fun at all times is the most important mission in life.
My family and I should enjoy more than others, have a bigger share than others.
Consumers are preoccupied with guarding, preserving and enhancing what is theirs. They don't assume responsibility for what lies beyond their doorstep.
Being Citizens is about taking responsibility for the overall direction of things. It is about wanting what is best for the whole community. Citizens want only equity, fairness and long-term sustainability.
For themselves and their families, they are satisfied with getting the fair share after everyone else has had their share. They may accept less than their fair share, but certainly do not want more.
Citizens care deeply about what happens outside their doors. They speak up and take charge.
Please God, help each one of us to beWorld Citizens, not Global Consumers.
Let us stop thinking of ourselves and of one another as CONSUMERS. Let us remember that we are CITIZENS.
Consumers care about their various desires and their right to fulfil those desires. Being a consumer is about thinking of rights and opportunities to exploit for pleasure or for gain. It is about deep-seated but usually hidden assumptions such as: More is better.
Big is beautiful.
New is good.
Having fun at all times is the most important mission in life.
My family and I should enjoy more than others, have a bigger share than others.
Consumers are preoccupied with guarding, preserving and enhancing what is theirs. They don't assume responsibility for what lies beyond their doorstep.
Being Citizens is about taking responsibility for the overall direction of things. It is about wanting what is best for the whole community. Citizens want only equity, fairness and long-term sustainability.
For themselves and their families, they are satisfied with getting the fair share after everyone else has had their share. They may accept less than their fair share, but certainly do not want more.
Citizens care deeply about what happens outside their doors. They speak up and take charge.
Please God, help each one of us to beWorld Citizens, not Global Consumers.
My Journey of Faith
Since the mid-80s, I was of the opinion that the activities of humankind were transforming the world in an unsustainable way. I had researched about this view and found it validated in a lot of writings. I wrote newspaper articles about it in 1988. I discussed a number of alternative courses of social action with my Dad for dealing with it... but I ended up doing nothing other than imposing a sort of penance, subsisting largely on uncooked foods for many months in 1999, and adopting a monk-like dress-code in 2002.
Seeing Al Gore's film, An Inconvenient Truth, in July 2007 was for me a vindicating experience. Here was someone with great credibility saying everything that I had been wanting to say all along, and saying it with style and effectiveness. It triggered me with a sense of urgency.
The film, screened at our chamber of commerce, was like a gas lighter's spark to a gas stove; already combustible, I needed that spark to ignite me into action.
The first task that I undertook, with the support of my chamber's anti-global-warming committee, was a mundane one: show the film to a lot of people in my city. And so I began to show the film around on my laptop, editing it down with fast-forwarding to about 55 minutes, delivering a short talk, fielding questions, clairfying, discussing alternative courses of action.
Here is a list of these meetings:
1) Screening at CCI's C K Naidu hall, Churchgate, on 26th July for 120 persons from the financial services sector , in coordination with Tata Mutual Fund, which then independently showed the film five times before audiences in Delhi, Bangalore and Calcutta.
2) Screening for 300 children of New Era School, August Kranti Maidan, on 26th July, Standards 6th, 8th, 9th and 10th.
3) On August 5, Sunday, 80 persons (25 families) at Railway Officers Club at Byculla watched this film before lunch.
4) On 5th September, 40 railway engineers at the Parel workshop saw the film and discussed Climate Change and viable responses.
5) On 10th September, 90 high-school students of Ram Ratna Vidya Mandir, a boarding school at Bhayender, watched this film and discussed lines of action with me over lunch.
6) 19th September at St Xaviers Boys Academy, New Marine Lines. 300 students watched intensely and 20 of them participated in an intense discussion held afterwards in the vice-principal's office.
7) 28th September at USV Limited, Govandi. 75 pharmaceutical lab technicians and their bosses, including their vice-chairman, watched the screening.
8) 18th October at Bombay Management Association. A high-quality audience of 40 persons raptly watched the screening. Two of those present there -- Prof. Bhavna Motwani and Mr Tejus Coulagi -- went on to become intensely involved with this cause. Soon afterwards, we formed an informal group called Children of the Earth. This group has organized two screenings at colleges subsequently, and has held three internal meetings. We are now attracting more members.
9) 14th November at Rotary Club of Navi Mumbai Hillside. An audience of 30 yielded a couple of very promising contacts. The vice principal of a very large college in Navi Mumbai is organizing a full day conference of teachers, besides other 2-hour seminars for students.
10) 26th November at Saraf College, Malad West. Prof Motwani and I addressed 300 girl BCom students for an hour, with a 20-minute screening of An Inconvenient Truth. It was my first experience of a mofussil audience. I became aware that Al Gore's film alone could not reach out to all audiences; I needed to weave oratory and humour into the mix.
11) On 8th December, I was present at a seaside amphitheatre at Khardanda where an awareness programme had been organized by some concerned citizens along with Greenpeace. Without meaning to steal the show, I turned out to be one of the main speakers there, and also facilitated the screening of Greenpeace films.
12) 11th December at Somaiya College, Vidyavihar. Prof Motwani & I addressed 100 students of BSc, along with their teachers, Principal and Vice Principal.
13) On 18th December, for about 90 minutes, I addressed 80 boys and girls of Std 9 at Colaba Municipal school, without screening the movie. It was an demanding job, engaging the mind of this audience without going into scientific abstractions of global warming.
Other activities:
1) Two weeks back, while travelling by train, I entered into a conversation with a peddler of books, who turned out to have a flair for scripting and directing street plays. Our discussions threw up a lot of ideological common-ground. Yesterday afternoon, I addressed a small gathering of slum youths near his chawl in Vile Parle. Many of these youths will act in a street play that we are scripting, and shall enact before slum audiences organized jointly with Rotary etc. For the first time in many months, I am experiencing a need to raise funds to keep this street play going.
2) In the last two months, I have emailed hundreds of members of Parliament, Central Ministers, students of IGIDR, Sardar Patel Institute, Management Institutes, IITs, bankers and economists, administrators, activists etc. I am carrying out a concerted campaign on the internet, through blogs, emails, comments to others' blogs, message boards etc.
3) I have designed Tshirts with slogans and attractive visuals, and am working at circulating them, enabling people to 'Walk the Talk and Wear the Talk'.
4) I have handed out a large number of DVDs and CDs with data on global warming, and xeroxed pamphlets of different kinds.
5) I have attended several meetings organized on Global Warming, at the British Council and other fora. I continue to network with activists and intellectuals, while also working with a more ordinary strata of citizens. All of this activity continues to happen on a day-to-day basis, several hours a day.
Upcoming Events:
1) I shall address a Rotary Club in Kala Ghoda, South Mumbai on 10th January, and another in Borivli on 11th January 2008.
2) Prof. Motwani and I will orient around 30 teachers on Global Warming on 21 st January at a state-sponsored seminar in Navi Mumbai. We shall speak on Corporate Social Responsibility and Citizens' Responsibility in the context of Global Warming.
3) Meetings are being fixed up for slum audiences and mofussil gatherings in coordination with Rotary and others. For such audiences, we have to structure our message differently. The street plays being produced are part of this effort.
Please don't take this as a boastful statement about how much I've done. What I'm trying to say here is: I'm dead serious, and this is a fascinating journey. Is there anybody else on the iland who would like to join me in spreading awareness or organizing some form of action on this problem? Please let us join hands and earnestly work on this problem.
Fighting global warming (or indeed taking on any such problem of similar magnitude) needs several leaps of faith, and then it needs to become a journey. I'm hoping that a few thinking people here on the iland will make these leaps of faith and run shoulder-to-shoulder with me.
Seeing Al Gore's film, An Inconvenient Truth, in July 2007 was for me a vindicating experience. Here was someone with great credibility saying everything that I had been wanting to say all along, and saying it with style and effectiveness. It triggered me with a sense of urgency.
The film, screened at our chamber of commerce, was like a gas lighter's spark to a gas stove; already combustible, I needed that spark to ignite me into action.
The first task that I undertook, with the support of my chamber's anti-global-warming committee, was a mundane one: show the film to a lot of people in my city. And so I began to show the film around on my laptop, editing it down with fast-forwarding to about 55 minutes, delivering a short talk, fielding questions, clairfying, discussing alternative courses of action.
Here is a list of these meetings:
1) Screening at CCI's C K Naidu hall, Churchgate, on 26th July for 120 persons from the financial services sector , in coordination with Tata Mutual Fund, which then independently showed the film five times before audiences in Delhi, Bangalore and Calcutta.
2) Screening for 300 children of New Era School, August Kranti Maidan, on 26th July, Standards 6th, 8th, 9th and 10th.
3) On August 5, Sunday, 80 persons (25 families) at Railway Officers Club at Byculla watched this film before lunch.
4) On 5th September, 40 railway engineers at the Parel workshop saw the film and discussed Climate Change and viable responses.
5) On 10th September, 90 high-school students of Ram Ratna Vidya Mandir, a boarding school at Bhayender, watched this film and discussed lines of action with me over lunch.
6) 19th September at St Xaviers Boys Academy, New Marine Lines. 300 students watched intensely and 20 of them participated in an intense discussion held afterwards in the vice-principal's office.
7) 28th September at USV Limited, Govandi. 75 pharmaceutical lab technicians and their bosses, including their vice-chairman, watched the screening.
8) 18th October at Bombay Management Association. A high-quality audience of 40 persons raptly watched the screening. Two of those present there -- Prof. Bhavna Motwani and Mr Tejus Coulagi -- went on to become intensely involved with this cause. Soon afterwards, we formed an informal group called Children of the Earth. This group has organized two screenings at colleges subsequently, and has held three internal meetings. We are now attracting more members.
9) 14th November at Rotary Club of Navi Mumbai Hillside. An audience of 30 yielded a couple of very promising contacts. The vice principal of a very large college in Navi Mumbai is organizing a full day conference of teachers, besides other 2-hour seminars for students.
10) 26th November at Saraf College, Malad West. Prof Motwani and I addressed 300 girl BCom students for an hour, with a 20-minute screening of An Inconvenient Truth. It was my first experience of a mofussil audience. I became aware that Al Gore's film alone could not reach out to all audiences; I needed to weave oratory and humour into the mix.
11) On 8th December, I was present at a seaside amphitheatre at Khardanda where an awareness programme had been organized by some concerned citizens along with Greenpeace. Without meaning to steal the show, I turned out to be one of the main speakers there, and also facilitated the screening of Greenpeace films.
12) 11th December at Somaiya College, Vidyavihar. Prof Motwani & I addressed 100 students of BSc, along with their teachers, Principal and Vice Principal.
13) On 18th December, for about 90 minutes, I addressed 80 boys and girls of Std 9 at Colaba Municipal school, without screening the movie. It was an demanding job, engaging the mind of this audience without going into scientific abstractions of global warming.
Other activities:
1) Two weeks back, while travelling by train, I entered into a conversation with a peddler of books, who turned out to have a flair for scripting and directing street plays. Our discussions threw up a lot of ideological common-ground. Yesterday afternoon, I addressed a small gathering of slum youths near his chawl in Vile Parle. Many of these youths will act in a street play that we are scripting, and shall enact before slum audiences organized jointly with Rotary etc. For the first time in many months, I am experiencing a need to raise funds to keep this street play going.
2) In the last two months, I have emailed hundreds of members of Parliament, Central Ministers, students of IGIDR, Sardar Patel Institute, Management Institutes, IITs, bankers and economists, administrators, activists etc. I am carrying out a concerted campaign on the internet, through blogs, emails, comments to others' blogs, message boards etc.
3) I have designed Tshirts with slogans and attractive visuals, and am working at circulating them, enabling people to 'Walk the Talk and Wear the Talk'.
4) I have handed out a large number of DVDs and CDs with data on global warming, and xeroxed pamphlets of different kinds.
5) I have attended several meetings organized on Global Warming, at the British Council and other fora. I continue to network with activists and intellectuals, while also working with a more ordinary strata of citizens. All of this activity continues to happen on a day-to-day basis, several hours a day.
Upcoming Events:
1) I shall address a Rotary Club in Kala Ghoda, South Mumbai on 10th January, and another in Borivli on 11th January 2008.
2) Prof. Motwani and I will orient around 30 teachers on Global Warming on 21 st January at a state-sponsored seminar in Navi Mumbai. We shall speak on Corporate Social Responsibility and Citizens' Responsibility in the context of Global Warming.
3) Meetings are being fixed up for slum audiences and mofussil gatherings in coordination with Rotary and others. For such audiences, we have to structure our message differently. The street plays being produced are part of this effort.
Please don't take this as a boastful statement about how much I've done. What I'm trying to say here is: I'm dead serious, and this is a fascinating journey. Is there anybody else on the iland who would like to join me in spreading awareness or organizing some form of action on this problem? Please let us join hands and earnestly work on this problem.
Fighting global warming (or indeed taking on any such problem of similar magnitude) needs several leaps of faith, and then it needs to become a journey. I'm hoping that a few thinking people here on the iland will make these leaps of faith and run shoulder-to-shoulder with me.
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